The International Monetary Fund has issued a fresh warning on the global economy, significantly cutting its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The latest World Economic Outlook, published on 22 April 2025, reflects mounting concern over the consequences of a trade war triggered by tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which could redefine global economic balances. According to the report’s authors, the macroeconomic context is deteriorating and the growth outlook for the transport and logistics sectors may be severely affected.
The Fund now expects global GDP to grow by 2.8% in 2025, down from the 3.3% forecast in January. This marks the slowest pace of expansion since the 2020 health crisis and the second weakest figure since the global recession of 2009. The outlook for 2026 is no brighter, with growth now projected at 3%, down by 0.3 percentage points. International trade, a key driver of freight flows by sea, air and land, is being hit directly by rising trade tensions: global trade growth is expected to contract by 1.5 percentage points this year, with only a marginal recovery anticipated in the next.
The impact on advanced economies is already clear. In the United States, where tariffs have reached levels not seen in a century, the Fund forecasts growth of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, down by 0.9 and 0.4 percentage points respectively. The trade tensions are producing a supply-side shock that is fuelling inflation — expected to reach 3% in 2025, a full point above the previous estimate — and dampening productivity. The risk of recession, which stood at 27% in October, has now risen to 40%.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, stated at a press conference that “we are entering a new era. The global economic system that has functioned for the past eighty years is undergoing a reset.” His remarks point to a structural shift affecting not only the rules of international trade but also the stability of value chains and, as a result, business planning in the transport sector.
China, another epicentre of trade tensions, is also facing a slowdown. Forecast growth stands at 4% for both 2025 and 2026, following downward revisions of 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. According to the Fund, Beijing’s fiscal expansion will only partially mitigate the negative impact of the tariffs.
The IMF emphasises that the current scenario is highly uncertain. The forecasts were updated at unprecedented speed, compressing into ten days an analytical process that usually takes over two months. Many of the near-final projections were revised after the 2 April announcement of a new wave of US tariffs. As a result, the IMF has opted for a “central scenario” based on information available up to 4 April, forgoing its usual, more detailed baseline scenario.
According to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics, conducted by Alex Isakov and Adriana Dupita, the Fund tends to underestimate the scale of unfolding crises. “IMF projections tend to be overly optimistic during potentially disruptive crises,” they wrote. “Even when the Fund lowers its initial forecasts, history suggests that the eventual damage will be greater.”
