The transition between the end of 2025 and the first weeks of 2026 marks a tentative turning point for container ship transits through the Suez Canal, following months of acute instability linked to the Red Sea crisis. According to the Red Sea Diversion Tracker by Drewry Shipping Consultants, in the week ending 11 January 2026 the number of container vessels transiting the canal rose to 26 units, the highest weekly level recorded in the past five weeks. In the previous week, transits had fallen to just ten, a figure that Drewry largely attributes to the traditional slowdown in operational activity after the Christmas holidays.
The increase seen in early January follows a particularly challenging December 2025. After a period of relative stabilisation during the autumn months, year-end volumes declined sharply, with a widespread drop in transits pushing traffic down to its lowest levels of the past six months. The contraction affected both the Suez Canal and alternative routes, pointing to a systemic slowdown at a time already characterised by high operational uncertainty.
From an operational perspective, Drewry notes that the apparent renewed interest in the canal has been driven by targeted decisions from a small number of major carriers. In the second week of January, CMA CGM/APL and MSC routed five container ships with capacities above 8,000 TEU through Suez, up from two units in the previous week. At the same time, niche operators have continued to deploy smaller vessels. As early as week 52 of 2025, Maersk had sent a 6,478 TEU container ship through the canal on a US–Middle East service, a move widely seen as an operational test rather than a structural shift in strategy.
Despite these signals, traffic levels remain well below the pre-Red Sea crisis norm. Before the escalation at the end of 2023, the canal averaged around 55 northbound transits per week and 25 southbound, figures that still appear a long way off. In parallel, the second week of 2026 also saw a sharp increase in the total number of voyages via the Cape of Good Hope, which rose to 175 from 72 the previous week, according to the same source. This confirms that alternative routes continue to play a central role in carriers’ network choices, even as limited signs of a return to Suez emerge.
According to Drewry’s analysis, the sector is now watching closely to see whether other major operators will maintain a wait-and-see approach or gradually resume Suez transits, including with larger vessels. A return to the Suez route is identified as one of the key variables for 2026, with implications for available capacity, freight rates, transit times and fuel consumption. Drewry suggests that a gradual recovery could help reduce the risk of sudden bunching of arrivals at European ports and limit severe congestion.
However, Drewry’s latest data predates the outbreak of the internal crisis in Iran, which could escalate into a regional conflict in the event of US intervention. Should this occur, Yemen’s Houthi forces could resume attacks on vessels transiting to and from the Suez Canal, potentially wiping out the current fragile recovery.
