Data published by WorldACD Market Data for week 45, from 3 to 9 November 2025, show a further rise in spot rates out of Asia-Pacific against a backdrop of slightly declining global volumes. The weekly increase of 2 per cent pushed the regional average to 3.99 dollars per kilo. This rise helped lift the global average by 1 per cent to 2.78 dollars per kilo, while the largest increase was recorded in Central and South America, where spot rates jumped by 8 per cent to 1.87 dollars per kilo.
The 3 per cent weekly drop in global volumes reflects a similar decline in chargeable weights out of Asia-Pacific, North America and Central and South America, a 2 per cent decrease from the Middle East and South Asia and from Africa, and a 1 per cent fall from Europe. According to WorldACD, part of the downturn in Asia-Pacific is linked to national holidays in Japan and, to a lesser extent, Malaysia. Volumes from Japan to global markets fell by 11 per cent, shaving one percentage point off the region’s overall performance. Weather-related disruption caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi had a significant impact only in the Philippines.
In the United States, the cancellation of several flights due to the temporary suspension of federal functions affected mainly domestic connections. The Federal Aviation Administration’s order to ground MD-11 freighters was issued on 8 November, towards the end of the week, although some operators had already halted operations following the 4 November accident in Louisville involving a UPS MD-11.
Global capacity remained stable week on week. A two-week comparison shows a slight 1 per cent decline in available bellyhold space between weeks 44 and 45 versus weeks 42 and 43. Reduced passenger bellyhold capacity after the end of the summer season on 25 October was offset by an increase in freighter operations.
The current picture shows some similarities with the same period in 2024. Weeks 44 and 45 this year show slightly declining but broadly stable volumes, while rates are rising ahead of demand peaks linked to e-commerce and late-November and December holidays. However, WorldACD notes that average global tonnage over the two weeks is six percentage points higher than in 2024, while rates are 4 per cent lower year on year.
In 2024, rates had remained unusually high. According to the report, in week 45 last year average market rates had increased by 12 per cent year on year, while spot rates were 23 per cent higher than in 2023. Demand was driven by Chinese e-commerce exports, which caused a marked tightening of capacity. The comparison with those levels explains why rates in 2025, although lower year on year, remain historically elevated.
In Asia-Pacific, rate trends in weeks 42–45 this year are almost identical to those seen in 2024. The increase in spot rates over the period amounted to 0.26 dollars per kilo, compared with 0.29 dollars in the same period last year. Current values remain 7 per cent below the 4.30 dollars per kilo recorded in week 45 of 2024.
On the Asia-Pacific–United States lane, volumes in week 45 fell by 6 per cent, with declines across almost all origin markets except Singapore and Indonesia. The largest drops were reported in China (–7 per cent), Hong Kong (–6 per cent) and South Korea (–7 per cent). Year on year, volumes are slightly higher, showing a 2 per cent increase, driven by strong growth of 30 to 50 per cent in Southeast Asia and offset by a marked decline in Northeast Asia. Chinese exports to the United States are down 9 per cent on 2024, Hong Kong is down 14 per cent and South Korea 18 per cent.
Spot rates from Asia-Pacific to the United States remained stable week on week. The only exception was Japan, where rates dropped by 21 per cent, reflecting operational suspensions during the holiday period. Year on year, the average rate in week 45 stood at 5.39 dollars per kilo (5.02 euros), 15 per cent less than in 2024. All ten major Asian routes to the United States recorded declines, except China, where the decrease was limited to 9 per cent and the average rate reached 5.57 dollars per kilo (5.19 euros).
On the Asia-Pacific–Europe lane, volumes fell by 2 per cent week on week, also influenced by holidays in Japan and Malaysia, while shipments from China and Hong Kong remained stable. Year on year, volumes still show a 9 per cent increase, although below the double-digit growth recorded in previous weeks. Spot rates to Europe rose by 2 per cent, reaching 4.20 dollars per kilo. Rates from China posted a weekly increase of 5 per cent, reaching 4.56 dollars per kilo. Year on year, values from Asia-Pacific to Europe are 10 per cent lower, while rates from China show a 6 per cent increase.
