The year 2024 is anticipated to mark a slight recovery for road freight transport in Europe, as outlined in the European Road Freight Transport 2024 report published by Transport Intelligence in June. With macroeconomic indicators in the continent showing positive changes, analysts predict that the revenue from road freight could increase by 1.6%, compared to a 2.3% contraction (in real terms) observed in 2023, when the European market was valued at €424.2 billion. This suggests that this year's market could exceed €431 billion.
The report explains that "2023 presented a challenging landscape characterized by adverse global macroeconomic conditions. Inflation and high-interest rates contributed to a reduction in consumer spending, exerting downward pressure on goods demand throughout the year. Although the Eurozone managed to avoid a recession in 2023, the beginning of 2024 remains subdued, with a soft landing expected for most of Europe in 2024. The main driver of recovery in 2024 will be the strengthening of household demand resulting from improved real incomes, higher nominal wage growth, and disinflation."
While this growth is modest, it reverses the negative trend. However, uncertainties remain that could negatively impact forecasts, such as the fluctuations in energy and fuel prices, interest rates, inflation, and external demand for goods. Transport Intelligence also presents a longer-term forecast, showing an average annual increase in road freight revenue of 2.1% until 2028 (in real terms).
Transport Intelligence has also conducted another study on European road freight, titled State of Logistics Road Freight Survey 2024. This report indicates that 78.7% of road freight companies surveyed are experiencing increasing pressure on margins due to rising costs and weakening demand. The three main strategies to support profit margins include technological investments, better vehicle utilization, reduced empty mileage, and offering new, higher value-added services.
The research also compares operating costs between diesel and electric industrial vehicles, both battery and hydrogen-powered. According to analysts, the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles is nearly identical to that of battery-powered electric vehicles. However, there is no reasonable timeline yet for hydrogen-powered electrics to reach such parity due to purchase and hydrogen costs. The researchers clarify that the total cost of ownership ratio between diesel and battery electric vehicles varies across European countries, depending on low or zero-emission transport incentive policies.
