On January 18, 2024, average spot freight rates for maritime container transport surpassed $6,000 between Shanghai and Genoa and approached $5,000 between Shanghai and Rotterdam, according to weekly surveys by Drewry. This data confirms operators' concerns about the consequences of the Red Sea crisis. Specifically, the rate from Shanghai to Genoa reached $6,282 per 40-foot container, marking a 21% increase from the previous week, while the rate to Rotterdam stood at $4,952, with a more modest increase of 12%.
This discrepancy in growth percentage, unfavorably impacting Genoa, may be due to the rerouting of container ships from Suez to the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a greater cost increase for Mediterranean ports compared to those in the North Sea. This is a particularly alarming sign for Italian ports, especially if the Red Sea crisis continues over an extended period. This possibility was suggested on January 17 by Maersk CEO Vincen Clerc, who indicated that circumnavigation of Africa could last "at least several months," causing "supply chain disruptions."
The highest weekly percentage increase was observed on the Rotterdam to Shanghai route, with a 50% growth in freight rates, nearing $1,000 per feu. Considering the annual trend, freight rates from Shanghai have more than doubled for both Genoa and Rotterdam: a 126% increase for Genoa and a 174% increase for Rotterdam.
The United States is also affected by this trend. Freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles grew 38% in a week, reaching $3,860, and those to New York increased by 35% to $5,644. The latter route is also affected by transit limitations in the Panama Canal due to drought. The only two routes bucking the trend are Rotterdam to New York, where rates remained stable at $1,506, and Los Angeles to Shanghai, the only route experiencing a decrease: down 1% to $762.
