A joint attack by the United States and Israel against military and government targets in Iran, launched on 28 February 2026, has brought the risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz back into focus. The strait is a strategic chokepoint for global energy flows. According to an analysis by Jamie Stewart, Head of Energy Content at Icis, a three-month disruption to maritime transit could push European gas prices above 90 euros per MWh, with immediate effects on the supply-demand balance. Around 20 per cent of global LNG trade and 25 per cent of seaborne oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The benchmark for assessing the impact in Europe is the TTF, short for Title Transfer Facility, the main virtual trading hub for natural gas in the Netherlands. It is not a physical infrastructure, but a trading point where operators, producers, traders and large consumers buy and sell gas for delivery in the Netherlands. Thanks to its high liquidity, the TTF has become the European benchmark: its prices are widely used as indexation references in supply contracts and reflect the overall balance of the continental market. The “front month” refers to the contract for delivery in the following month and is the most closely watched, as it incorporates short-term expectations on storage levels, flows and demand.
To estimate the potential consequences of a Hormuz closure, Icis analysts used the Gas Foresight modelling platform, comparing a three-month disruption scenario with a base case. The assumption includes the absence of contracted Qatari LNG imports into Europe until the end of May and a reduction of 131 TWh in spot volumes over a 90-day period, with immediate effect.
Between April and November, total European demand, including storage refilling, is estimated at around 2,600 TWh. The model applies a rolling 90-day horizon within a 365-day planning framework, replicating the way trading desks optimise hedging strategies in a context of limited medium-term visibility. Under the disruption scenario, the TTF front month would immediately rise to 92 euros per MWh, averaging around 86 euros per MWh during the blockage period. By comparison, the April contract, which becomes the new front month when trading resumes on Monday 2 March, had been assessed by Icis at just under 32 euros per MWh at Friday’s close. The projected increase would therefore be close to three times current levels.
According to Stewart, citing assessments by Icis Head of Gas Analysis Andreas Schroeder, the scale of the increase highlights the systemic importance of Gulf LNG supplies for Europe’s gas balance. The removal of Qatari volumes, in an already tight global LNG market, would trigger intensified competition for flexible cargoes between Europe and Asia. Icis data for 2024 show that 83 per cent of LNG volumes transiting Hormuz are destined for Asia; China, India and South Korea alone account for 52 per cent. A disruption would force Asian buyers to rely more heavily on alternative supplies from the United States and Australia, putting them in direct competition with Europe and supporting spot prices.
Even after the Strait reopens, the effects would persist. The model indicates that, with the return of Qatari volumes, prices would begin to ease during summer 2026 but would remain above the base case for several months: around 65 euros per MWh in May, 40 euros per MWh in June and 34 euros per MWh in July, still roughly 10 per cent above the uninterrupted scenario. Only in autumn would the trajectories converge, as the global LNG balance normalises.
Europe faces this potential shock with a more diversified system than in 2022, thanks to new regasification terminals and greater reliance on LNG. However, according to the analysis cited by Stewart, storage levels remain relatively low and the refilling phase for the following winter is likely to be challenging. In a disruption scenario, even at elevated prices, not all demand could be easily met. Among the options considered would be a temporary revision of storage filling targets to ease market pressure.
This picture is compounded by financial market assessments. According to Bloomberg, initial market reactions point to rising risk premiums on energy supplies and higher gas and oil futures, amid growing volatility linked to geopolitical developments. Bloomberg notes that investors are recalibrating expectations for global supply, factoring in the possibility of prolonged disruptions to Gulf shipping routes.
