In 2025, Italian logistics real estate recorded a clear acceleration, consolidating its role as one of the most dynamic segments of the property market. According to Jll’s analysis for the fourth quarter of 2025, the logistics and industrial sector attracted investments of around €2.3 billion, up 30% year on year and accounting for roughly 18% of total real estate investment volumes in Italy. The figure confirms renewed confidence in the segment, supported by solid fundamentals and a development pipeline that remained strong throughout the year.
The fourth quarter made a decisive contribution. Between October and December, around €1 billion of investments were recorded, the strongest quarterly result of the past three years, highlighting a progressive strengthening of the market in the second half of the year. Growth was driven largely by transactions involving sizeable logistics portfolios, with the top five deals accounting for around 46% of total quarterly volumes, enabling investors to rapidly increase their exposure to the Italian market.
During 2025, approximately 2.5 million square metres of new logistics space were completed, more than half of which was developed on a speculative basis. According to Jll, this indicates the market’s ability to anticipate demand, despite a context marked by longer decision-making processes among end users and increasing selectivity in both location and quality choices. The new supply helped keep the vacancy rate at physiological levels, around 5.5% nationwide, avoiding excessive pressure even in areas with the highest concentration of demand.
Demand for logistics space remained solid, with total take-up reaching 2.4 million square metres, up 7% compared with 2024. The recovery was concentrated mainly in the second half of the year, when the fourth quarter alone recorded around 790,000 square metres absorbed, an increase of 32% year on year. According to Jll, this performance offset the slowdown seen in the early months of 2025, restoring an overall picture of substantial stability on the occupier market.
Third-party logistics operators continued to be the main driver of demand, accounting for around 50% of total take-up. Retail followed with a 27% share, while manufacturing operators represented about 13% of the total, reinforcing the diversified profile of demand. This composition has a direct impact on development strategies, encouraging flexible solutions capable of adapting to different operational needs and more complex usage cycles.
In 2025, existing assets played a central role. Lease agreements accounted for 44% of take-up, followed by owner-occupier solutions at 25% and pre-let agreements at 31%. For smaller surface areas, tenants favoured readily available speculative space, while for larger schemes the market continued to rely on projects developed for direct ownership by the occupier and built to suit, allowing greater customisation and planning aligned with development timelines.
The size of the spaces required provides further insights for developers. Transactions below 25,000 square metres represented around 70% of the total number of deals and 40% of absorbed space. The mid-size segment between 25,000 and 50,000 square metres accounted for about 25% of transactions, while deals above 50,000 square metres, although limited in number, generated around 20% of total take-up, often through built-to-suit projects.
From a geographical perspective, the Italian market continues to show a strong concentration in the north. Nearly 80% of 2025 take-up was recorded in northern regions, confirming the central role of the main logistics corridors and areas close to major manufacturing and infrastructure hubs. Central Italy captured around 12% of demand, while the south absorbed the remaining share, still offering growth potential linked to infrastructure development and the gradual reorganisation of supply chains.
In the main markets, headline rents remained stable, reflecting a balance between new supply and demand. Milan stands at €70 per square metre per year, Rome at €69 and Bologna at €67, while Veneto records €58 and Turin €50. Of particular importance for urban logistics operators is the last-mile segment, where benchmark rents reach around €110 per square metre in both Milan and Rome, with potential increases where specific customisations are required in built-to-suit schemes for occupiers.
On the investment front, the return of lower-risk capital represents a key signal for the entire logistics real estate development ecosystem. Interest in grade A assets that are modern and well located is accompanied by a greater openness towards properties with less advanced technical characteristics in contexts marked by supply shortages and structurally solid demand. This dynamic broadens the range of opportunities for developers and operators, encouraging refurbishment and repositioning of existing stock.
A benchmark yield of 5.3% confirms improving investor expectations, with further compression anticipated over the next three to six months. According to Jll, this trend reflects growing confidence in the fundamentals of the Italian logistics sector and in its medium-term growth prospects, supported by structural trends such as the reorganisation of distribution networks, the strengthening of proximity logistics and increasing attention to energy efficiency in buildings.
Overall, 2025 emerges as a year of rebalancing and renewed momentum for logistics real estate, with development playing a central role in supporting occupier demand and making the market more mature and diversified. Fourth-quarter data, according to Jll, point to a solid base on which to build strategies for the coming years, in a context that increasingly requires planning capability, construction quality and closer integration between operational needs and location choices.
Antonio Illariuzzi
