Tariffs on foreign nations are at the top of President Donald Trump’s agenda. Speaking at the White House on 20 January 2025, he declared, “We will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens. For this purpose, we are establishing the External Revenue Service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues.” While Trump did not specify the countries targeted by these measures, an announcement on the list of nations is likely to follow soon.
If Italy is among the affected countries, the repercussions could be severe for its economy, which ranks second in Europe after Germany in terms of exports to the United States. A report released by Confartigianato on 17 January 2025 highlighted the significance of the US market for Italy. In 2024, Italian exports to the US totalled €66.4 billion, accounting for 10.7% of the nation’s total exports.
A regional analysis underscores the strategic importance of the US market for several Italian regions. In 2024, Lombardy led Italian exports to the US with €13.5 billion, followed by Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Veneto, and Piedmont. Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna, in particular, displayed significant exposure to the US market, with 9.6% and 7.1% of their value added tied to it, respectively. Despite an overall decline of 1.5% in manufacturing exports to the US during the first nine months of 2024, regions such as Lazio and Tuscany reported notable growth, with increases of 40.5% and 18.5%, respectively.
The report referenced alarming estimates from the National Board of Trade Sweden, suggesting that a rise in US tariffs of 10% to 20% could lead to a reduction in Italian exports to the US by 4.3% and 16.8%, respectively. Marco Granelli, President of Confartigianato, commented, “While tariff policies may offer short-term advantages, past experiences show that long-term commercial success is achieved by ensuring the free movement of goods.”
A reduction in exports to the US would also negatively impact maritime and air freight. The most affected ports for US-bound routes are located along the Tyrrhenian coast, with Genoa at the forefront, maintaining direct connections to New York, Norfolk, and Savannah. Other key ports include La Spezia, Livorno, Naples, Salerno, and Gioia Tauro. Major US destinations include Boston, Baltimore, Charleston, and Miami, in addition to those already mentioned.
