After weeks of talks with other European Union countries and in anticipation of the fourteenth package of sanctions against Russia, Denmark has decided to limit the ever-growing shadow fleet of Russia. The official announcement was made on Monday, June 24, 2024, by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The aim is to prevent Russia from exporting oil to Europe through ships flying the flags of other countries to evade sanctions.
As emphasized by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Denmark has gathered and implemented the will of several countries, particularly those bordering the Baltic Sea: "It is important that all new proposals can be implemented quickly and are legally sustainable," Rasmussen stated in a note, highlighting that since June 17, Denmark has been conducting talks with other EU countries on blocking tankers with false flags, i.e., registered in exotic countries (or otherwise Russian trade partners) to circumvent sanctions.
The blockade will target all ships with expired, inadequate, or missing insurance coverage, a characteristic common to all Russian shadow ships. This move has been met with a harsh reaction from the Kremlin, accusing Denmark of violating international law, and has sparked a wide range of political and public opinion responses.
In this regard, the Danish newspaper Information raised fears of possible Russian retaliation, considering the voluntary release of tons of crude oil at sea to deliberately cause an ecological disaster plausible. "A hybrid attack using tankers could occur if Putin believed he could benefit from it," the article reads.
Most EU countries support Denmark's actions, seeing them as part of a common sanctions strategy against Russia. In the last few hours, the European Commission has also confirmed the fourteenth package of sanctions against the Kremlin, which includes a list of the first 27 ghost tankers subject to a navigation and docking ban. However, despite European cohesion, some states have expressed concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the potential economic consequences of the blockade.
For Russia, losing the ability to transport oil through the Danish strait will necessitate seeking alternative export routes, which are certainly longer and more expensive. Putin might also increase the capacity of pipelines leading to ports in the Black Sea or the Arctic Sea, as well as invest in developing new rail or road links to Asian ports. Both possibilities would entail high costs or infrastructure interventions, which would take months, if not years, to implement, especially during wartime.
Marco Martinelli
