The list of major infrastructure projects falling behind the schedules set at the start of construction continues to grow. The latest addition is the Fehmarn Belt tunnel. Initial forecasts identified 2032 as a realistic target for opening the undersea rail link between Denmark and Germany. That is no longer the case. It will take at least another three years, pushing the opening back to 2035, if all goes well.
The closing months of 2026 have brought a succession of announcements of delays to major railway projects. The Terzo Valico dei Giovi, already subject to repeated postponements, will not open before 2029. The target for the Brenner Base Tunnel also keeps moving back and now stands at 2034, while upgrades to its German rail approaches are not expected until 2045. The Turin–Lyon line and its Mont Cenis base tunnel appear to face a similar fate: official forecasts have slipped to December 2033, but a further two-year delay looks highly likely. Then there is the project that has become synonymous with delays: Stuttgart 21, the major new rail hub in the German city, whose name refers to what was supposed to be its completion year. Construction has certainly progressed over the intervening years, but even in the best-case scenario, it will not open until 2031, ten years after that symbolic date.
The Fehmarn Belt tunnel will therefore also miss its deadline. According to Denmark’s state railway operator Dsb (Danske Statsbaner — Danish State Railways), the delays stem, unsurprisingly, from the German side of the project. Denmark has consistently championed the scheme with considerable commitment and enthusiasm, partly because it stands to gain the most. Germany, by contrast, has followed somewhat reluctantly, remaining on board largely because of its international commitment. The bottleneck, however, is not the 18-kilometre undersea tunnel at the heart of the Fehmarn Belt link, but the German approach route across the Fehmarnsund, which separates the island of Fehmarn from the German mainland. Trains currently reach the island over a single-track bridge, which opened in 1963 to provide a fixed link where previously ferries had been the only option. The infrastructure is now outdated and, crucially, lacks the additional capacity needed to accommodate the increase in traffic expected once the Fehmarn Belt tunnel opens.
Back in March 2020, Germany announced plans to supplement the existing bridge, which would eventually be reserved for light tourist traffic, with an undersea tunnel less than two kilometres long carrying two railway tracks and four road lanes. At the time, the project was scheduled for completion by 2028. German sources now acknowledge that the tunnel may not enter service until 2035. Costs have also soared, from an initial estimate of just over €700 million to more than €2 billion. This raises the prospect of the Fehmarn Belt tunnel opening in two stages. Its four road lanes would open first, probably around 2032, followed by the railway once Germany completes its infrastructure, at least three years later. Until 2035, rail freight between Germany and Scandinavia will therefore have to continue using the longer route via the Great Belt or the Jutland peninsula.
While Germany is behind schedule on this and other projects of European significance, Sweden has decided to accelerate work on the routes leading to the Fehmarn Belt tunnel. Sweden’s infrastructure ministry has decided to double the funding allocated, from just over €300 million to more than €600 million. The money will support the modernisation and upgrading of around 70 kilometres of the southern main line between Hässleholm, a major junction where many Swedish railway lines converge, and Lund, around 20 kilometres north of Malmö, the gateway to the Öresund Bridge.
Piermario Curti Sacchi
