Global trade is slowing down, and more than expected. The World Trade Organization, in the update released on 16 April 2025, has drastically cut its forecasts for the year: according to the new baseline scenario, the global volume of merchandise trade is set to contract by 0.2 per cent, compared with the 2.7 per cent growth forecast just six months ago. Behind this revision are not just numbers, but a growing instability involving tariffs, divergent economic policies and unresolved geopolitical tensions.
Crucial in this context is the so-called ninety-day tariff pause, a temporary agreement that suspended the application of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States on certain countries. This measure prevented an even sharper downturn – the Wto estimates that without this truce, the decline in trade would have reached 1.5 per cent – but it is not enough to revitalise global commercial dynamics. Everything will depend on what happens in July, when the suspension of tariffs expires. Washington will have to decide whether to return to a hardline approach or to open the door to structured dialogue.
At a regional level, North America is under special observation. Forecasts indicate a collapse in exports of 12.6 per cent and in imports of 9.6 per cent, weighing alone by 1.7 percentage points on global trade growth. Asia, thanks to the resilience of intra-regional demand and a certain substitution effect in supply chains, contributes positively, albeit modestly. Europe remains slightly positive, while Africa, the Middle East and Latin America maintain a stable but sluggish profile.
Services, not directly subject to tariffs, show greater resilience. After expanding by 6.8 per cent in 2024, they are expected to continue growing by 4 per cent in 2025, although the prevailing climate of uncertainty is affecting travel, logistics, finance and consultancy. However, the Wto highlights that certain contextual variables – from international conflicts to the accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence – are not yet fully incorporated into the forecasting models.
Should tensions between the United States and China crystallise into a systemic and lasting confrontation, the impact on the global economy could be devastating. The Wto estimates a potential long-term loss of up to 7 per cent of global GDP, an extremely high price for the collapse of trade multilateralism. For the European Union as a whole, this scenario demands strategic reflection. Politically, Brussels will be called upon to decide whether to play a mediating role or prepare for a world in which each economic bloc will act independently.
