The suspension of funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in effect since 13 February 2026 due to a political impasse over immigration and border security, is placing increasing strain on the United States’ air cargo infrastructure. The most immediate impact is being felt by the Transportation Security Administration (Tsa) and Customs and Border Protection (Cbp), the agencies responsible for cargo screening and customs operations respectively, which are now operating with reduced staff, irregular pay or under significant contractual uncertainty.
The 2026 shutdown is not an isolated episode. It follows a period already marked by the prolonged federal shutdown of 2025, when a shortage of air traffic controllers forced the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to order a 10% reduction in flight movements across 40 major high-volume airports. That measure, adopted with the support of the Trump administration, applied to the 06:00–10:00 time window and, although it did not explicitly target cargo flights, directly reduced bellyhold capacity available for freight carried on passenger aircraft. According to Airlines for America, a 10% reduction in flights generates daily losses of between $285 million and $580 million (€260 million to €530 million) for the travel economy, excluding indirect impacts on supply chains. After the first week of the 2025 shutdown, estimates already pointed to more than $1 billion (around €920 million) in lost domestic travel spending.
The Airforwarders Association (Afa), representing US freight forwarders, raised the alarm in the early weeks of the shutdown, reporting more than 300 resignations among Tsa agents within the first five weeks of the DHS funding freeze. According to the association, the primary risk is not an immediate collapse in security levels but a gradual deterioration in operational predictability. The erosion of human capital makes it more difficult to plan capacity and rotations, while extending cargo handling times at airport terminals. The Afa has repeatedly stressed that the smooth functioning of air cargo “is not optional”, but underpins the US economy and communities worldwide, and that a secure, predictable and adequately resourced aviation infrastructure is essential for the competitiveness of the national logistics system.
The first critical link in the chain is cargo screening. With the Tsa operating at reduced capacity, the most immediate risks include warehouse backlogs, delayed departures and rising handling costs. At the same time, Cbp understaffing and limits on overtime are slowing customs clearance for both imports and exports, creating a multiplier effect at major coastal and transpacific gateways. Supply chain analysts note that customs bottlenecks at major hubs are prompting companies to reroute flows through alternative logistics corridors or redesign distribution networks, with implications that extend well beyond individual forwarders.
Geographically, the most exposed airports are those serving as both passenger and cargo hubs: New York (Jfk, LaGuardia, Newark), Atlanta, Los Angeles, Denver, Orlando, Houston, Charlotte and Austin. At these airports, belly cargo accounts for a significant share of total capacity, meaning that reductions in passenger flights automatically translate into less available freight space. More insulated, at least partially, are dedicated cargo hubs such as FedEx in Memphis and Indianapolis and Ups in Louisville. These facilities operate primarily during night-time hours, which are less affected by daytime restrictions, and have contingency plans to prioritise critical shipments such as pharmaceuticals and medical supplies. However, these hubs also depend on Tsa agents for screening and Cbp officers for customs clearance, placing them at risk should the staffing crisis worsen.
For all-cargo carriers, the combination of reduced slot availability and rising seasonal volumes — driven by e-commerce peaks, holidays and pharmaceutical demand — is producing what operators describe as a “double hit”: less capacity precisely when demand is increasing. FedEx and Ups have stated that they have rescheduled part of their operations to night-time windows and introduced internal prioritisation procedures for time-sensitive shipments. Freight forwarders, for their part, are responding with surcharges, premiums for guaranteed capacity, rerouting via alternative airports and, in the most critical cases, shifting to other transport modes — road, rail or sea — accepting longer transit times in order to contain costs.
The political roots of the shutdown lie in the clash between the administration and Congress over a package of measures on border control and immigration reform. The Dhs budget has been allowed to lapse, turning the renewal of funding into a negotiating lever and effectively placing Tsa, Cbp, the Coast Guard and other agencies at the mercy of the legislative stalemate. As of late March 2026, the shutdown remains in place, although the Trump administration has announced a plan to temporarily restore Tsa payrolls without resolving the underlying political dispute.
The consequences extend beyond the short term. Each shutdown creates backlogs in inspections, certifications and investment projects that persist well beyond the formal duration of the funding gap. Hiring freezes and the departure of skilled personnel weaken the system’s structural resilience, while delays in back-office activities — including security reviews, aircraft certification and approvals for new infrastructure — hamper the industry’s ability to modernise fleets and expand cargo facilities. Industry associations have long called for essential functions such as air traffic control, airport security and customs to be insulated from political budget disputes through funding mechanisms that guarantee operational continuity and workforce stability regardless of parliamentary negotiations.
For Europe and its logistics operators, this instability is far from remote. The reliability of US aviation infrastructure is a prerequisite for the smooth functioning of transatlantic corridors handling high-value goods — including electronics, pharmaceuticals, luxury products and machinery — linking Europe’s main industrial centres, including Italy, to North American markets. Any structural slowdown at US airports translates into higher costs, longer transit times and greater uncertainty for exporting companies that rely on air freight as a competitive lever.
Anna Maria Boidi
