For the first time in five years, Interact Analysis has revised downward its estimates for the global market of autonomous mobile robots (AMR) and automated guided vehicles (AGV). The 2025 update of its report reduces projected revenues for the current year by 850 million dollars, bringing the total down to around 6.29 billion dollars. The correction becomes even more significant when viewed over the medium term: the cumulative gap compared to previous forecasts exceeds 6.6 billion dollars by 2030. Growth has not come to a halt, but it is slowing markedly.
According to analysts, the slowdown should be seen as cyclical rather than structural. The fundamentals of the sector remain solid, but a combination of economic and geopolitical factors is pushing many companies to delay investments in mobile automation. The first element weighing on the market is the tightening of tariffs between the United States and China, which has affected imports of essential components such as drives, lidars and batteries, disrupting Asian supply chains. Adding to this is the persistence of high interest rates, particularly in North America and Europe, which are dampening capital spending plans. Completing the picture is growing caution among trade unions, especially in western countries, towards warehouse automation, particularly in the e-commerce sector.
The chart published by Interact Analysis clearly illustrates the trajectory of the revision. The new 2025 forecast is 850 million dollars lower than the one released in october 2024. The gap widens progressively in the following years, exceeding 6.6 billion by 2030. Yet the overall trend remains upward: in the revised estimate, global revenues for the AMR and AGV segment rise from 2.75 billion dollars in 2021 to over 15.7 billion in 2030. Growth remains solid, though slightly delayed over time.
A regional breakdown reveals that the downward revision is not uniform. The Emea area shows the sharpest cut, with a 16% reduction in the 2025 forecast, from 2.1 to 1.75 billion dollars. The rest of the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) also sees a significant contraction of 14%, while the United States registers a 12% revision. In China, the cut is more limited, at 8%, thanks to state support for strategic sectors such as electric mobility and photovoltaics. The rest of the americas shows a similar decline but remains marginal in absolute terms.
Despite the slowdown, Interact Analysis maintains an optimistic outlook for the medium-to-long term. Several technological and market trends suggest new opportunities. Mobile robots equipped with forks, for example, are gaining ground in more complex industrial settings. Subscription-based business models, which shift the investment from capital expenditure to operational expenditure, are lowering entry barriers for many companies. And three-dimensional vision technologies based on artificial intelligence are rapidly improving automated picking capabilities, paving the way for more versatile and flexible solutions.
The year 2025 is therefore shaping up as a period of adjustment rather than a stop. The adoption cycle is lengthening, but not breaking. According to analysts, companies operating in the mobile robotics sector will need to read the signs, adapt their offering and seize the opportunities emerging from a market that, while slowing, continues to evolve rapidly. Those able to respond with agile, sustainable and accessible solutions will be ready to rebound decisively when the cycle becomes favourable again.
