The World Container Index published by Drewry on 21 August 2025 confirmed the decline that began at the start of summer. The composite index on 14 August stood at 2,350 dollars per FEU, down 3 per cent week on week, while the 21 August update marked a further 4 per cent fall to 2,250 dollars. The trend is also clear on an annual scale: in the first half of August 2024 the global index was sailing above 5,500 dollars, reaching 5,551 on 8 August, which means a contraction of around 58 per cent year on year. The correction comes against a backdrop of softer demand and additional capacity entering the fleet, with volatility easing after the surge in May and early June driven by the US tariff effect.
On the China Europe trade lanes, the week ending 14 August showed synchronised declines. Shanghai Rotterdam slipped to 3,176 dollars per FEU, down 3 per cent from the previous week, while Shanghai Genoa dropped to 3,084 dollars, a fall of 4 per cent. The figures point to a gradual loosening of the demand supply balance and to the fading of the early shipping surge that had supported volumes in the first part of the year. Year on year, rates remain well below the levels of last summer, when the composite index was above 5,000 dollars.
Across the Transpacific, the fall was sharper towards the US East Coast. Shanghai New York dropped to 3,638 dollars per FEU, down 5 per cent year on year, while Shanghai Los Angeles stood at 2,494 dollars, down 2 per cent year on year. The Los Angeles Shanghai return leg remained stable at 711 dollars, confirming a rebalancing of the backhaul flow. The gap between the two US coasts remains wide, with the West Coast about one third below the East Coast, signalling faster easing on the California corridor but also a relative resilience in East Coast bound volumes.
The Transatlantic also showed slight weakening, though without sudden jolts. Rotterdam New York fell to 1,945 dollars per FEU, down 3 per cent week on week, while New York Rotterdam slipped to 843 dollars, a 1 per cent decline. The spread between the two directions still favours European exports, though it is less pronounced than at the peaks of 2024.
Operationally, the market remains bearish across the main East West routes. Spot buyers can afford to stagger commitments in the coming weeks to capture any further softening, thereby preserving margins and flexibility. On the China US trades, the difference between East and West suggests that, where supply chains allow, some volumes could be shifted towards the West Coast with intermodal routing to the Midwest and East, though port congestion and rail capacity need careful consideration.
On the China Europe route, the pace of weekly declines in the 3 to 4 per cent range provides grounds to press for downward adjustments in spot rates and to insert indexed clauses in short term contracts tied to recognised benchmarks. It also remains wise to set aside budget and transit time buffers, since US policy risks, from tariffs to potential penalties on Chinese vessels, may spark bouts of volatility more than structural reversals.
Looking ahead, Drewry expects volatility to be more limited in the short term after the settling phase that followed the early June peak. For the second half of 2025, however, the baseline scenario remains one of further weakening in the demand supply balance and continued downward pressure on spot freight rates. The scale and timing of these movements will largely depend on developments in US tariffs, the possible application of penalties on Chinese fleets and the pace of new vessel deliveries, factors that could intensify overcapacity if demand does not recover.
