The crisis stems from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for crude oil and refined products. For Europe, which sources around 30% of its jet fuel from the Gulf, the issue is not an immediate depletion of stocks but the resilience of supply flows in the coming weeks.
According to Argus Media, the last shipments dispatched before the disruption are expected to reach European ports around 10 April 2026. After that date, unless tensions ease, the market could enter a more strained phase, with imbalances between countries and individual airports.
Sustainable aviation fuel, although expanding, remains too limited to offset the shortfall in fossil-based supply. Iata estimates indicate that in 2026 it will account for just 0.8% of global jet fuel demand, with costs still significantly higher than conventional fuel.
The emerging shortage of aviation fuel on international markets in early April 2026 does not currently translate into an immediate risk of a widespread halt to European aviation. The issue lies elsewhere: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel has cut off one of the world’s main corridors for exporting crude oil and refined products, including jet fuel, directly impacting a structurally net-importing Europe. This is where the system’s greatest vulnerability now lies.
According to leading estimates, around 30% of Europe’s jet fuel demand is normally met by imports from the Persian Gulf. The disruption therefore has a faster and more severe effect on the continent than on regions with greater domestic refining capacity. The Iea (International Energy Agency) has warned that supply disruptions from the Middle East are likely to intensify during April, with clear repercussions for jet fuel and diesel in Europe between April and May.
The most visible signal is in prices. Brent crude has risen above 100 dollars per barrel, with peaks exceeding 110 dollars, while in some areas spot prices for jet fuel have doubled compared with pre-crisis levels. The market is not only pricing in reduced availability but also a risk premium linked to geopolitical uncertainty, higher insurance costs and increased maritime freight rates on alternative routes around Africa.
For Europe, the central issue is the resilience of stocks and supply in the short to medium term. According to Eurostat data, the last kerosene shipments passing through Hormuz before the closure are expected to reach European ports around 10 April 2026. From that point, without reopening or sufficient alternative routes, inbound volumes could decline sharply. This does not automatically mean a supply blackout, but it marks the beginning of a phase in which the physical availability of the product becomes more uncertain.
Coverage estimates from Argus Media present a less alarming picture in the very short term, but also a highly uneven one. According to this modelling, commercial jet fuel stocks would provide around four months of cover in Portugal, five in Hungary, six in Denmark, seven in Italy and Germany, and eight in France and Ireland. These are theoretical estimates based on unchanged consumption and a specific flow structure. They are not official government forecasts and do not fully account for potential demand shifts, logistical bottlenecks or varying exposure across individual airports.
This reflects the structure of the European market itself. Some countries have greater refining capacity, more developed logistics networks or more favourable sourcing positions. Others are more exposed to maritime imports or have less flexibility. As a result, the risk does not take the form of a single continental scenario, but rather a combination of national and local vulnerabilities. The lack of up-to-date public data on stock levels at individual airports also makes it difficult to translate national estimates into precise forecasts of operational disruptions at specific hubs.
Reuters reports that a document circulating in Brussels shows the European Commission is considering reusing emergency tools similar to those introduced in 2022 during the Russian gas crisis. Member states have been warned about the possibility of prolonged energy market disruption and urged to prepare demand-containment measures. Options under discussion include targeted use of reserves, coordinated consumption reduction plans and measures to extend the duration of available volumes. There are currently no official EU-level jet fuel rationing plans, but the fact that such tools are back under consideration highlights the structural nature of the risk.
Signals from both political and industry sources point in the same direction. Ireland’s prime minister has linked the continuation of the war to a potential energy shock for the European economy. Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, said in an interview with Rté that supply disruptions for aviation fuel could occur from early May, with possible impacts on some summer routes. These statements should be treated with caution but reflect growing concern among airlines about a factor that directly affects operational planning and margins.
The European situation forms part of a broader global supply contraction. Industry analyses suggest that from the first weeks of March 2026, global jet fuel exports may have fallen by more than 60%, dropping below 700,000 barrels per day. If confirmed in upcoming data, this would represent a sharp contraction, driven not only by the paralysis of Gulf flows but also by rising maritime insurance costs and route diversions. The impact would be strongest in regions dependent on Middle Eastern refined products, including Europe, Africa and parts of Asia.
For airlines, this scenario creates a dual challenge. The first is price. The second is physical access to fuel. Higher prices can be partly absorbed through hedging, fare increases or operational adjustments. Reduced availability, however, can directly affect flight schedules and route choices, particularly for carriers with less contractual leverage or less diversified supply chains. Before the crisis, Iata forecast an average jet fuel price of 88 dollars per barrel in 2026, with fuel accounting for 31% of operating costs. That outlook was based on a stability scenario now overtaken by events.
At this stage, it is important to distinguish between the vulnerability of the conventional jet fuel market and the role of sustainable aviation fuel. According to Iata estimates, global SAF production is expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, equivalent to around 0.8% of global jet fuel demand. Even assuming full utilisation, this contribution remains too small to act as a meaningful buffer against a supply shock of this scale. SAF is expanding, but from a base that is still insufficient to influence short-term supply security.
The limitation is not only quantitative. SAF costs roughly twice as much as conventional jet fuel, with even higher differentials in markets with stricter blending mandates. Iata estimates suggest this could add an extra cost of 4.5 billion dollars in 2026. There are also industrial constraints on feedstocks, such as the limited availability of used oils and other raw materials currently used in production. Under these conditions, SAF remains a tool for transition and decarbonisation rather than an immediate solution to a fossil fuel supply crisis.
Europe is navigating this same tension. EU regulation mandating minimum SAF blending levels at airports introduced a 2% threshold from 2025, but the fuel mix remains overwhelmingly dominated by traditional jet fuel. Reuters notes that European airlines likely reached or exceeded that level in 2025. However, even with further growth, sustainable fuel cannot immediately compensate for a reduction in conventional flows from the Gulf. The market therefore remains dependent on fossil fuel availability and the ability to reorganise supply routes.
Overall, one point stands out. Europe does not currently appear to be on the brink of a sudden exhaustion of aviation fuel, but it is entering a phase of increasing market tightness. Stocks provide a temporary buffer, prices already reflect tension, and the emergency measures under discussion in Brussels indicate that institutions consider a prolonged crisis plausible. The key issue is not only how much fuel is missing today, but how long Europe can sustain reduced Gulf flows without shifting from price pressure to physical shortages at specific logistical nodes and airports.
Anna Maria Boidi
