The second quarter of 2024 began with an increase in average air freight rates. According to WorldACD Market Data, the global average value started to rise gradually from early March 2024, when it was still over 10% below the previous year's levels. By early May, rates had surpassed 2023 values for the first time, with a 2% increase. They then stabilized, showing a 4% year-on-year increase in the last week of May (the 21st week of the year, from May 20 to 26).
A more detailed analysis reveals that this increase is partly explained by the growing volumes on long-haul flights from the Asia-Pacific region, where rates are relatively high. In the 21st week, global tonnage decreased by 2% compared to the previous week, the lowest value since the period from May 6 to 19, when it was at 5%. Capacity remained stable globally throughout May but increased significantly (+7%) in the last two weeks compared to the same period last year.
WorldACD analysts indicate that outbound tonnage from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) regions to Europe increased by 26% year-on-year in the last two weeks (from May 13 to 26), with Dubai leading in terms of growth points (+97%). This value is still significantly lower than the first half of March on the Dubai-Europe routes (+228%). However, tonnage from India (+16%) and Sri Lanka (+30%) also increased significantly year-on-year in the past two weeks.
Looking at tonnage analysis in weeks 20 and 21, global values increased by 3%. Significant differences emerge between regions of origin. For the Asia-Pacific (+8%), half of the increase can be explained by the Golden Week in Japan at the beginning of May, which boosted all flows from the Asia-Pacific and within the region. For Central-South America, the 12% decrease during this period can almost entirely be explained by the drop in flower demand related to Mother's Day, which significantly affected the flow from this region to North America.
The positive trend in tonnage for the Asia-Pacific and other regions of origin (except the Americas) is largely explained by the post-May Day recovery. This is particularly true for transports originating in Europe, where tonnage increased by 4% in two weeks, despite a weekly decrease of 6%, linked to the Pentecost holiday on May 18-19.
Global average rates remain relatively stable, increasing by only three cents to $2.50 per kilo in the 21st week, with a 4% annual increase. Even on a bi-weekly basis, global and regional average rates are relatively stable. However, compared to 2023, average values for transports from the Middle East and South Asia are significantly higher (+48%). Toward European destinations, average rates from MESA origins remain more than double (+120%) compared to the same period last year.
