The global air cargo market expanded for the seventh consecutive month, but signs of deceleration are now evident. Data published by Iata show that worldwide demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, rose by 2.9% compared to September 2024 — still positive, but 1.1 percentage points below the August growth rate. International demand, accounting for over 87% of the total, grew by 3.2%.
Seasonally adjusted data, however, indicate a 0.6% decline month on month, confirming that the expansion phase is losing momentum. Available capacity, measured in available tonne-kilometres, increased by 3% year on year, almost matching demand and keeping the load factor stable at 45.7%, unchanged from a year earlier.
Freight rates continued to fall on a yearly basis but recorded a fifth consecutive monthly increase. In September, transport rates were 5.5% lower than in the same month of 2024, yet 1.3% higher than in August, supported by a combination of still-solid demand and a more balanced supply.
Fuel prices reversed their downward trend. The average jet fuel price rose by 5.4% compared to a year earlier, marking the first annual increase in fourteen months. By contrast, Brent crude fell by 8.5% year on year, doubling the crack spread — the difference between crude oil and refined fuel — from USD 11 (EUR 10.2) in September 2024 to USD 22.7 (EUR 21.1) in 2025.
Capacity composition showed a clear rebalancing in favour of passenger bellyhold space. Available cargo space on commercial flights increased by 6.9% year on year, now representing 55.5% of total international freight, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024. Conversely, capacity offered by dedicated freighters fell by 1.4%, especially on transpacific routes where all-cargo aircraft account for over 80% of total capacity.
Regional performance remained uneven. African carriers once again posted the strongest growth, up 14.7% year on year, driven by rising traffic with Asia. The Asia-Pacific region followed with +6.8%, still robust but slower than August’s +10.4%; regional growth since the start of the year stands at 8.8%. In Europe, demand grew by 2.5%, showing a slight slowdown. The Middle East registered a modest +0.6%, while North America declined by 1.2%, and Latin America and the Caribbean posted a -2.2%, their first contraction since February 2023.
Iata also highlighted sharp contrasts between international routes. The Europe–Asia corridor was the most dynamic, up 12.4% year on year, followed by intra-Asian routes (+10%) and Africa–Asia (+9.6%). The Middle East–Asia route grew by 4.6%, while Europe–North America rose by 2.6%. In contrast, Asia–North America continued to contract (-3.5%), affected by tariffs and tighter trade conditions, and the Europe–Middle East route saw the steepest decline (-4.6%), hit by geopolitical tensions and airspace restrictions.
For the January–September 2025 period, only three main corridors recorded cumulative positive results: Europe–Asia (+10.2%), Europe–North America (+7.6%) and Middle East–Asia (+4.1%). All others showed declines, including Asia–North America (-1%) and Africa–Asia (-7.6%), indicating that air cargo recovery remains uneven and heavily influenced by regional conditions and energy costs.
According to Iata, the slowdown reflects multiple concurrent causes, both geopolitical and market-related. Among the key factors are geopolitical tensions and operational restrictions, particularly affecting the Europe–Middle East route. Regional conflicts and the closure or limitation of some airspaces have led to route diversions and longer flight times, increasing operational costs and reducing scheduling predictability. The report also links the general slowdown in Middle Eastern activity to several active Ease alerts, which continue to affect trade flows and logistical planning.
Another major factor is the ongoing trade friction between Asia and North America, which has weighed on transpacific traffic. Stricter tariff policies and a less cooperative trade stance have reduced exchange volumes and led some airlines to cut dedicated freighter capacity. Uncertainty over tariffs and tensions between major economies have significantly dampened demand for air freight on this route.
The macroeconomic backdrop further explains the market contraction. The report correlates air cargo demand with industrial production and goods trade, noting that despite a modest increase in global manufacturing output, new export orders remain below the neutral 50 threshold in the Purchasing Managers Index. This reflects a persistently cautious business outlook, resulting in fewer international shipments and, consequently, lower demand for cargo capacity.
Fuel costs remain a critical component. The rise in jet fuel prices — driven by a tight diesel market despite falling crude quotations — has eroded airline profit margins, reducing the profitability of cargo operations and prompting some carriers to streamline fleets or adjust flight frequencies. Finally, the report points to a specific factor affecting the US market: the suspension by several international postal services of small parcel deliveries to the United States following the withdrawal of the de minimis exception. This measure has directly hit international e-commerce flows, a segment that had supported air cargo growth in recent years.
