For European road haulage, 2026 is shaping up as a year of gradual recovery within a still fragile macroeconomic environment. This is according to an Upply report on road freight transport forecasts, which places the sector in a context of economic growth in the euro area expected at 1.2%, while the European Union as a whole should reach 1.4%, both below the pre-pandemic average of 1.9%. The outlook remains influenced by geopolitical tensions, the energy transition and industrial policies whose effects will only materialise over the medium term. Within this framework, road transport benefits from a recovery in consumption but continues to face structural constraints related to costs, capacity and regulation.
The country-by-country analysis highlights a multi-speed Europe. Poland confirms its role as the main growth engine, with gross domestic product forecast to rise by 3.5% in 2026, accelerating compared with the previous year. Spain maintains solid momentum, with growth estimated at 2.3%, albeit slowing from levels close to 3% in 2025. The Netherlands shows more moderate expansion at 1.3%, while Germany, France and Italy remain in the lower range, with rates between Italy’s 0.8% and Germany’s 1.2%. This macroeconomic gap is directly reflected in transport flows, demand for logistics services and the ability to absorb freight rate increases.
On the demand side, the report identifies the resilience of domestic consumption as the main supporting factor for road transport in 2026. Harmonised inflation is expected to fall to 1.9%, below the European Central Bank (ECB) target, contributing to a recovery in purchasing power and to household consumption growth estimated at 1.2%. The labour market remains relatively resilient, limiting the risk of a contraction in goods demand. Public investment, particularly in infrastructure and defence, is increasing, with Germany playing a central role, although the most significant impact on logistics and transported volumes is expected mainly from 2027 onwards.
A key indicator for transport demand is e-commerce. In France, sector turnover is expected to exceed €200 billion, with more than 41 million online shoppers, equivalent to 73.3% of the population over the age of 15. This growth continues to fuel fragmented flows, higher delivery frequency and pressure on last-mile logistics, with direct consequences for the organisation of road haulage services and cost structures.
The automotive sector remains one of the key elements for understanding volume trends. In Germany, new vehicle registrations are forecast at 2.9 million units in 2026, up 2%, but still around 20% below the 2019 record levels. Total domestic vehicle production is expected to decline slightly, by 1%, while battery electric vehicle output should increase by 11%, reaching 1.76 million units. This reorganisation of supply chains, with a growing weight of electric vehicles, is reshaping logistics flows, the types of components transported and the geography of intra-European traffic. At the same time, the services sector is showing more robust growth in southern Europe, particularly in Spain, with increases estimated between 2% and 3% in tourism- and digital-related services, generating additional transport demand for consumer goods and supplies.
A central chapter of the Upply report focuses on the evolution of operating costs and freight rates. The freight rate index points to stabilisation at historically high levels. Contract rates have shown steady growth since 2017 and stand at around an index level of 130 at the start of 2026. Spot rates, characterised by strong volatility, after peaking in 2022 have recorded a new upswing in the second half of 2025, approaching 125. This trend reflects a still fragile balance between demand and capacity, in which shrinking margins are pushing operators to pass an increasing share of costs on to customers.
Pressure on margins is intensified by rising labour costs and new regulatory burdens. In the Netherlands, for example, wages in the sector are growing by 6.1%, while the introduction and extension of emissions-related tolls further increase per-kilometre costs. According to Upply, the average profitability of road haulage companies remains at minimal levels, making freight rate adjustments essential to prevent the exit of more vulnerable operators from the market.
The sector’s structural difficulties are intertwined with challenges related to human capital and the environmental transition. Driver shortages remain one of the main constraints on capacity. In Germany, 25% of drivers are over 55, while in France 40% are over 50. The revision of the driving licence directive, which will allow industrial vehicle driving from the age of 18, is intended to encourage young entrants, but its effects will be gradual rather than immediate. In the meantime, competition for personnel continues to put pressure on wages and work organisation.
On the environmental front, emissions-based toll systems are being progressively extended. They are already in place in countries such as Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic, while the Netherlands will introduce the new scheme from 1 July 2026. This mechanism accelerates fleet renewal but widens the gap between large logistics groups and small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the report, replacing a diesel truck with an electric or hydrogen vehicle entails an additional cost of between €100,000 and €150,000, a burden that is difficult for smaller operators to sustain without adequate public support.
Technology emerges as a key factor of competitive differentiation. Germany, the Netherlands and Spain are at the forefront of adopting artificial intelligence-based solutions, with Spain counting around 2,800 companies active in the sector. The integration of digital technologies, advanced planning systems and, in the longer term, autonomous vehicles is aimed at improving operational efficiency and reducing environmental impact. The stated objective is a 30% reduction in logistics emissions by 2030, a target that requires significant investment and a profound reorganisation of processes.
Overall, the Upply report portrays European road haulage in 2026 as a sector navigating a complex transition phase. Moderate economic growth and a recovery in consumption provide support to demand, but high costs, staff shortages and accelerating environmental regulation require continuous adaptation of operating models, with differentiated effects across countries and between operators of different sizes.
Pietro Rossoni
