In May 2025, a ceasefire brokered between the United States and the Houthi movement regarding attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea opened a potential path for the return of cargo traffic through the Suez Canal. Transits had been disrupted at the end of 2023 following the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the subsequent retaliation by the Houthis. Yet, by early June 2025, most shipping lines still opt to reroute their Asia-Europe services around the African continent.
One exception is the French operator Cma Cgm, which never fully abandoned the Red Sea corridor and is now increasing its sailings along this route. Its East Asia–Mediterranean Phoenician Express (Bex2) and Persian Gulf–Mediterranean Levant Middle East Express (Lmx), both operated under the Ocean Alliance, have continued to use the Suez Canal throughout the crisis. The company has stated that Red Sea transits are conducted with maximum safety, which remains its highest priority, and its vessels sail through the conflict zone under the protection of the French Navy.
Between January and April 2025, only 647 container ships passed through the Suez Canal, according to Alphaliner, with a significant shift in vessel type. A notable 70.6% of these were sub-Panamax vessels with capacities under four thousand TEUs—a stark change from pre-crisis conditions, when this category accounted for just 10–15% of total traffic. This suggests that the canal is currently being used primarily for short-sea shipping. This trend is reinforced by the fact that no Ultra Large Container Ship or Megamax vessel with capacity exceeding eighteen thousand TEUs has transited the Suez Canal for more than a year.
Cma Cgm expressed its intention to return to the Suez route as early as May 2025 during an online meeting with the canal authority. It later scheduled the reactivation of its Medex service, which connects India and the Mediterranean via the Middle East. According to Lynertica, the service is expected to resume on 28 June, when the container ship Cma Cgm Pellas will enter the Suez Canal after departing from the Indian port of Mundra on 7 June. The Cma Cgm Nabucco and Cma Cgm Titus will follow on 5 July and 12 July, respectively.
The Medex service will restart with a revised port rotation including Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali, Karachi (temporarily omitted), Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Colombo, Jeddah, Piraeus, Malta, Genoa, Fos-sur-Mer, Barcelona, Valencia, Jeddah and Abu Dhabi. The updated service will run on a ten-week cycle using ten vessels, each with a capacity ranging between 6,000 and 10,000 TEUs. Chinese carrier Cosco will continue to participate as a slot charterer on Cma Cgm’s ships, branding the service as Mina. Although neither company has officially announced their return to the Suez route, their service schedules indicate Red Sea transits.
To encourage vessels back to the canal, the Suez Canal Authority launched an incentive programme on 15 May 2025, offering a 15% discount on transit fees for container ships with a net tonnage of 130,000 tonnes or more. The incentive is set to last for ninety days. In recent weeks, the Authority has also initiated a series of consultations with shipping companies, vessel owners and maritime agencies to assess the impact of geopolitical developments on maritime traffic.
Nevertheless, a full return may take time. A sector-wide survey conducted by maritime consultancy Drewry shows that 54% of respondents expect large-scale operations through the Suez Canal to resume by the end of 2025, while 29% foresee a reopening in 2026. Major carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have declared they will not resume regular operations in the region until there have been at least three consecutive months without attacks, along with broader security guarantees.
Another key condition for bringing ships back to the Suez route is the reduction of insurance premiums for navigating the Red Sea, which remains listed as a high-risk area by many underwriters. In September 2024, Reuters reported that security risk premiums for vessels sailing through the region had risen to 2% of the ship’s value, up from 0.7% at the beginning of that month.
