Globally, the volume of goods transported by air has been experiencing a moderate recovery after Chinese New Year, according to weekly data released on 21 February 2025 by WorldACD Market Data. Although the seasonal decline was less pronounced than last year, it is still premature to assess whether demand in 2025 will return to normal levels or if the recovery will be sustainable in the long term. The data analysed covers the five weeks up to 16 February 2025, showing a steady increase following an initial 13% drop during the Chinese New Year period. Subsequently, cargo volumes rose for two consecutive weeks with weekly increases of 3%. This trend contrasts with 2024, when the decline was steeper at 20%, followed by a sharper rebound of 15%.
Analysts at WorldACD Market Data are closely monitoring cargo volumes originating from the Asia-Pacific region. After a 35% drop from week four to week five, week seven (10-16 February) saw a 15% rebound. Compared to 2024, when the decline during the same period was nearly 60%, 2025 appears to be exhibiting a more stable pattern. Goods originating from China and Hong Kong reached their lowest point in week six (3-9 February), with a 45% drop compared to two weeks earlier. In 2024, the decline had been more pronounced at 66%. However, cargo flows to Europe and North America have shown no significant variations compared to other markets. There is no clear evidence of shipments being brought forward to avoid US import tariffs on Chinese goods, nor an unusual decline linked to recent changes in US regulations on the "de minimis" threshold.
The average spot rates for air shipments from the Asia-Pacific region in week seven stood at 3.54 dollars per kilogramme, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous week and a 9% rise compared to the same period in 2024. Rates for Asia-Pacific to Europe routes have remained largely stable at an average of 4.13 dollars per kilogramme. Prices between Hong Kong and Europe are holding at 4.95 dollars per kilogramme, while rates from China to Europe have increased by 10% to reach 4.34 dollars per kilogramme.
In trade with the United States, average rates have risen by 4% compared to the previous week, standing at 4.81 dollars per kilogramme. However, rates from China to the United States have fallen by 6%, dropping to 3.74 dollars per kilogramme. In contrast, shipments from Japan to the United States have surged by 28%, reaching 7.30 dollars per kilogramme, while those from South Korea have seen a 13% increase, with an average rate of 5.88 dollars per kilogramme.
The current trend suggests to WorldACD Market Data analysts that the air cargo market is undergoing a phase of stabilisation, with signs of recovery that, although moderate, appear more stable than last year. The growing role of e-commerce seems to have helped cushion the seasonal decline, but many uncertainties remain regarding future prospects, particularly in relation to demand trends and global trade policies.
