In the sixth week of 2025 (3rd to 9th February), air cargo demand experienced a modest 3% increase over the prior week, which had been marked by the typical downturn associated with Chinese New Year festivities. Despite this, average rates continued to fall, particularly on routes originating from the Asia-Pacific region. According to data from WorldACD Market Data, global rates, averaging both spot and contractual, decreased by 5% week-on-week, settling at $2.30 per kilogram. This figure represents a 3% decline compared to the same period last year, though this comparison is influenced by the different timing of Chinese New Year in 2024.
The rate decrease in the sixth week was primarily driven by a significant 11% reduction on routes originating from Asia-Pacific. Globally, average spot rates fell by 3% week-on-week to $2.55 per kilogram, with an 8% drop in spot rates from Asia-Pacific, reaching $3.56 per kilogram. Despite these weekly declines, both metrics remain 7% higher than the previous year.
For origins in the Middle East and South Asia (MESA), demand saw a slight 1% week-on-week decrease and a 7% drop compared to the same week last year. Spot rates experienced a modest 4% weekly decline, settling at $2.99 per kilogram; however, on an annual basis, they remain 39% above the global average.
On routes to Europe, tonnage from MESA is significantly lower (-21%) than during the same period last year, reflecting primarily the increased volumes recorded last year due to disruptions in maritime transport in the Red Sea. Spot rates from MESA to Europe, averaging $2.48 in the sixth week, have notably decreased from the high levels of the latter half of last year, yet remain 32% above week 6 of the previous year.
With Chinese New Year falling on 29th January this year, WorldACD Market Data is unsurprised that tonnage from China to the United States plummeted in the following weeks, recording a 20% drop in the fifth week and a further 28% in the sixth, leading to an overall 41% year-on-year decline. Tonnage from Hong Kong to the United States also saw significant decreases, with a 22% drop in the fifth week and 13% in the sixth.
WorldACD Market Data's analysis finds it challenging to determine how much of this decline is attributable to the annual holidays and factory closures in China in the weeks before and after Chinese New Year, and how much is the result of the Trump administration's decision to revoke duty-free import processes for goods from China. This measure caused massive backlogs in customs processing, swiftly leading to the suspension of the presidential order until adequate systems are implemented to effectively process and collect applicable duties. Meanwhile, dozens of cargo flights laden with e-commerce goods have been cancelled.
Routes from China to Europe experienced similar weekly declines, with a 30% drop in the fifth week and a further 20% in the sixth. Tonnage from Hong Kong to Europe showed slightly better resilience, with decreases of 22% and 17% in the fifth and sixth weeks, respectively. However, spot rates from China to Europe remained relatively stable, with a slight 2% dip in the fifth week and a further 4% in the sixth, settling at $3.91 per kilogram, almost exactly at the level of the sixth week of the previous year.
Tonnage destined for the United States from other East Asian countries celebrating Chinese New Year saw significant declines in the fifth week, including South Korea (-42%), Taiwan (-60%), and Vietnam (-58%). However, in the sixth week, a recovery or partial recovery was observed, with a 21% increase in South Korea, 68% in Taiwan, and 31% in Vietnam. Spot rates from these markets to the United States remain significantly higher than levels during the same period last year.
