The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported an 8.2% year-on-year increase in global air cargo demand for November 2024. This marks the 16th consecutive month of growth in the sector. Alongside this rise in demand, available capacity increased by 4.6%, while fuel costs fell by 22% compared to 2023, resulting in a 7.8% boost to profit margins. Despite these positive results, concerns persist for 2025, as the global economy faces challenges linked to inflation, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in trade.
The broader economic environment showed moderate growth in both industrial production and global trade. Industrial output rose by 2.1% in October, while the global trade of goods recorded its seventh straight month of expansion, with a 1.6% increase. However, signs of caution remain. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for export orders stayed below the critical 50-point threshold, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in international trade. Inflation trends also presented a mixed picture, with slight increases in the United States and the European Union, while China’s inflation fell to just 0.2%, raising fears of an economic slowdown.
Regional performances in the air cargo market highlighted notable differences. The Asia-Pacific region led the way, with demand surging by 13.2% and capacity increasing by 9.4%, bolstered by the region's pivotal role in global trade and the rapid growth of e-commerce. Latin America also showed strong results, with demand rising by 11.6%, driven by the expansion of international routes, while capacity grew by 6.4%. North America continued to consolidate its position as a strategic hub for global air traffic, with demand increasing by 6.9% and capacity growing by 2.2%.
Europe demonstrated steady growth, with demand up 5.6% and capacity rising by 4.3%, affirming its importance for routes connecting Asia and the Middle East. In the Middle East, demand increased by 3.6%, though capacity contracted slightly by 0.6%, with key routes to Asia and Europe remaining vital. In contrast, Africa experienced a 0.7% decline in demand, despite a modest 0.4% increase in capacity.
International air cargo routes were a key driver of growth, with traffic rising by 9.5% compared to November 2023. The most dynamic routes included those between Asia and North America, which grew by 13%, and between Europe and Asia, which recorded a 12.9% increase. Intra-Asia routes also showed strong momentum, fuelled by the growing demand for e-commerce. Airlines in the United States and Europe benefited significantly from these trends, as maritime shipping continued to face capacity limitations.
As 2024 draws to a close, the air cargo sector appears poised for a strong finish and a positive start to 2025. However, IATA has urged operators to remain vigilant about the economic and geopolitical risks that could disrupt the delicate balance of supply and demand. The association has also stressed the importance of technological innovation, sustainability, and market adaptability as critical factors for ensuring long-term competitiveness in this evolving industry.
