According to data released by IATA, the fourth quarter of 2023 saw a notable rebound for the global air cargo market, demonstrating a particularly strong performance that almost reached the levels of 2022 and 2019. The global demand for the entire year 2023, measured in ton-kilometers, remains slightly below the previous year, with a decrease of 1.9% (2.2% for international operations). The difference compared to 2019 is -3.6% (-3.8% for international operations). However, capacity increased by 11.3% compared to 2022 (+9.6% for international operations) and by 2.9% compared to 2019.
The year 2023 closed with a strong outcome: in December, demand exceeded that of the same month of the previous year by 10.8% (+11.5% for international operations), the best result for this month in the last two years. Global capacity was higher by 13.6% (+14.1% for international operations). IATA notes among the main macroeconomic factors the increase in global cross-border trade for the third consecutive month in October, inflation in December in the United States and the EU falling below 3.5% on an annual basis, and deflation in China for the third consecutive month, signaling a possible economic slowdown.
Another significant element, emerging in November 2023, is the maritime traffic crisis in the Red Sea, due to attacks by Yemeni Houthi on merchant ships off their coasts. The increase in travel times and freight rates for container ships has prompted shippers to shift cargoes from ship to air.
Regionally, in 2023, Asia-Pacific airlines reported a 0.9% increase in demand compared to 2022, with a capacity increase of 28.5%. North American airlines, on the other hand, recorded the worst annual performance, with a 5.7% decrease in demand and a 0.3% increase in capacity. In Europe, there was a 3.9% decrease in demand and a 4.5% increase in capacity. African demand also fell by 1.8%. Conversely, Middle Eastern and Latin American carriers showed positive performances, with an annual demand increase of 1.6% and 2%, respectively.
"Despite political and economic challenges, 2023 saw air cargo markets regain ground lost in 2022 after the extraordinary Covid peak in 2021,” explains Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “While annual demand was slightly lower than pre-Covid levels, the significant strengthening in the last quarter is a sign that markets are stabilizing towards more normal demand patterns. This sets the industry on solid foundations for success in 2024. However, given the ongoing and in some cases increasing instability of geopolitical and economic forces, little can be taken for granted in the coming months."
