International air cargo has seen a sharp increase in prices between February and March 2026, with rises of up to 95% on some routes. According to Drewry Airfreight Insight, the surge is driven by a combination of reduced available capacity and higher fuel costs triggered by the conflict in Iran. The trend is particularly affecting routes between Asia and the Middle East, with knock-on effects across other global corridors. Specifically, rates between Shanghai and Dubai have reached $8.60 per kilogram, marking a 95% increase since the start of the conflict. This level is close to the $9.40 record set in 2020 during the pandemic. According to Drewry, further increases in fuel surcharges could push rates beyond that threshold.
The rise in costs is largely driven by surcharges applied across different routes. Between Singapore and London, fuel surcharges rose by as much as 290% month on month in March, while security surcharges increased by 44% on shipments from Dubai and Abu Dhabi to Amsterdam. A similar, though more moderate, trend is also evident on routes from India to Europe: on connections from Mumbai and Delhi to Madrid, overall rates increased by 27% month on month, with a 21% rise in fuel surcharges.
At the root of these dynamics is a contraction in operational capacity. As highlighted by Philip Damas, head of Drewry’s logistics division, the air cargo market is facing a dual impact: reduced effective capacity and rising fuel costs. The reduction in operations also affects some of the world’s leading carriers, including Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad, which have limited flights due to hostilities in the region.
The Middle East plays a central role in global air cargo dynamics. Routes linked to the region account for 15.6% of global traffic and 18.2% of total capacity. Operational restrictions along these corridors therefore affect not only direct connections but also intercontinental routes transiting through the region, widening the impact across the entire logistics system. According to Drewry, around half of the international routes analysed recorded monthly increases of 20% or more in March. This confirms a widespread trend, not confined to individual markets, and points to a period of significant cost pressure in air freight.
