The fleets and warehouses used by manufacturers and retailers to transport their own goods are not included in the transport sector, because national accounts classify them under the businesses that operate them. The same applies to fuel, vehicle maintenance, leasing and infrastructure. The study, "Rilevanza dei trasporti e della logistica in Italia", conducted by Federtrasporto and the Confindustria Research Centre, brings these components together and estimates that the transport and logistics supply chain generates €341 billion in value added, equivalent to 19% of Italy’s GDP.
A comparison with the official statistical classification reveals the scale of the difference. Ateco divisions 49 to 53, which make up Section H and cover transport, warehousing and courier services provided to third parties, generate €86 billion, or 4.8% of GDP, according to Istat’s national accounts. Including activities belonging to the sector but classified elsewhere in official statistics, counting only the proportion attributable to transport and logistics, raises the figure to €184 billion, or 10.3% of GDP. These additional components alone account for €98 billion, more than the entire Section H. A third level adds indirect effects along the supplier chain and induced effects from spending the income generated, contributing a further €157 billion. The authors, Tullio Buccellato, Flavia Di Castro and Andrea Recine, place the estimate within a range of 17.7% to 20.1% of GDP, with a 90% confidence level, based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulation scenarios.
To calculate the overall figure, the study applies the hypothetical extraction method to Istat’s symmetric input-output tables, covering 63 industries and supplemented with in-house logistics activities. The transport system is removed from the matrix of technical coefficients, and the value added that the economy would still be capable of producing is recalculated. The difference between the two scenarios measures how much the rest of the economy depends on the movement of goods and people.
Logistics accounts for the largest share. Combining outsourced and in-house activities, it generates €108 billion in value added within the industrial system, equivalent to 6% of GDP and 59% of the total. Freight and passenger transport account for €46 billion (2.6% of GDP), while fuel and vehicle maintenance on the one hand, and infrastructure and ancillary services on the other, contribute €15 billion each. The proportions remain unchanged when the wider economic impact is considered: €202 billion of the €341 billion generated, again 59%, comes from warehousing, cargo handling, fleet management, logistics planning and support services for road, maritime and air transport. Transport accounts for €84 billion, fuel and maintenance for €30 billion, and infrastructure and ancillary services for €25 billion. For Federtrasporto, these figures demonstrate that logistics cannot be treated as the final stage of the production process and must be recognised as a driver of industrial policy.
The same pattern emerges in employment. The supply chain supports 4.67 million full-time equivalent jobs through direct, indirect and induced effects, representing 19.5% of national employment: almost one full-time job in five. Logistics accounts for 2.81 million, or 60%; freight and passenger transport for 1.16 million; infrastructure and ancillary services for 416,000; and fuel and maintenance for 288,000.
Within the official statistical classification, the breakdown by activity confirms the importance of freight. Of the €86 billion generated by Section H, 38% comes from warehousing and transport support activities, 33% from freight transport, 21% from passenger transport and 8% from postal services. Freight predominates in land transport, where it generates 64% of value added, and in maritime transport, where it accounts for 54%; in air transport, its share falls to 12%. Within division 52, warehousing in the strict sense accounts for a relatively small proportion: storage and warehousing represent 5% of the division and cargo handling 13%, while services supporting land transport (25%), air transport (18%) and maritime transport (6%) together account for 49%, with other support activities representing 33%.
The historical data also reveal a slower recovery than in the rest of the economy. In 2020, real value added in Section H fell by 17.8%, a sharper decline than in other sectors. Growth subsequently resumed at a more gradual pace, and by 2025, taking 2019 as an index of 100, the sector remained around five points below the rest of the economy.
The links with the wider economy emerge from the matrix of inter-industry transactions. Manufacturing purchases 34% of transport and logistics services, paying for them both upstream, to obtain supplies, and downstream, for distribution and exports. Wholesale and retail trade account for 21%, while 32% remains within the supply chain itself, through couriers purchasing haulage services, freight forwarders buying maritime and air capacity, and operators using warehouses and intermodal terminals. In terms of costs, 39% of the sector’s purchases are made from other businesses within the supply chain, while 26% goes to manufacturing for fuel, spare parts, tyres and vehicle maintenance. A further 16% goes towards property, leasing and business services, including warehouse and yard rents, vehicle leasing and temporary labour.
Paolo Colombo, president of Federtrasporto, interprets the figures as a call for a change in perspective: the movement of people and goods "can no longer be regarded as ancillary activities or simply as costs to be reduced, but must be seen as a driver of industrial policy and national competitiveness". For manufacturing, Colombo argues that this means moving from ex-works to delivered-at-destination terms: "Giving up control of the logistics chain means giving up value added, expertise and control over customer relationships." The federation, which brings together road, rail and air transport operators and infrastructure managers within Confindustria, is calling for transport, logistics and infrastructure to become permanent components of Italy’s industrial planning, supported by stable and predictable rules, a multi-year infrastructure investment programme and integrated coordination. These are regarded as essential conditions for the continuity of supply chains and exports.
Antonio Illariuzzi
