The Rail Baltica project, a new railway corridor intended to connect Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, with Poland via Latvia and Lithuania, has faced numerous twists and turns. The most recent development is the doubling of its projected costs compared to initial estimates from 2017. Initially forecasted to cost €5.8 billion, the latest update now pegs the expenses at €15.3 billion. This significant increase is attributed not only to rising prices of raw materials and energy but also to ongoing modifications that have enhanced the original plan with new technical solutions and additional connections.
Despite this substantial cost escalation, partly anticipated, the European Union remains unwavering in its commitment to the project. The EU has set a firm deadline of 2030 for the completion of this new railway corridor. However, the project's financial framework will need revision, as Europe had previously pledged to cover up to 85% of the costs under the Connecting Europe Facility program, a figure that now needs reevaluation.
RB Rail, the project's promoter, estimates a construction cost of €26 million per kilometer, aligning with similar projects in Europe. The cost-benefit analysis remains favorable, projecting net economic benefits of nearly €7 billion and overall impacts on the Baltic economies ranging from €15 billion to over €23 billion.
The EU's insistence on adhering to the construction timeline is not unwarranted, given delays, especially in Latvia. It wasn't until May 2024 that the first works began on the 230-kilometer main line in Latvia, with an estimated cost of €3.7 billion. In contrast, Estonia has more optimistic prospects, with plans to build around 50 kilometers of the main line in 2024, adding to the 21 kilometers already under construction and another 30 kilometers in the bidding phase. Rail Baltica Estonia, overseeing the construction of the new railway line, expects to finalize all contracts related to the main line by 2024. In Lithuania, about 30 kilometers are under construction, with an increase to 70 kilometers anticipated by the end of 2024, while technical infrastructure works (electrification and signaling) proceed as scheduled.
Once completed, Rail Baltica will span 870 kilometers. The new corridor holds significant geopolitical importance, justifying the substantial community financial commitment. It will create the first transverse railway link among the three Baltic republics, connecting them to mainland Europe, whereas their railway connections have been historically tied to Russia. This European vision is further emphasized by adopting the standard gauge instead of the Russian broad gauge, using a 25 kV AC electrification system, and implementing the European signaling system Ertms/Etcs.
Piermario Curti Sacchi
