After two years of decline, 2025 was expected to mark a turning point for the heavy trailer market in Western Europe. Conditions appeared favourable: interest rates were falling, signs of economic recovery were emerging, and expectations pointed to double-digit growth. However, the onset of a global trade war abruptly altered the outlook. According to the report released in June 2025 by Clear International, growth prospects for the sector have been significantly scaled back. Initial projections anticipated growth exceeding 10 per cent, but the current estimate for the year now stands at a more modest 6 per cent.
The European Central Bank’s decision on 23 April to lower the refinancing rate to 2.4 per cent, followed by similar moves from other national central banks, had created an environment conducive to investment. This was bolstered by more optimistic GDP forecasts for the major economies of Western Europe. In this context, a resurgence in trailer demand seemed not only possible but imminent. Yet the unexpected tariff war initiated by the United States disrupted expectations. Protectionist measures — including heavy duties on imports into the US and retaliatory tariffs from several countries — have undermined business confidence, delaying planned investments in new transport equipment.
One of the main obstacles to growth, the report notes, is the prevailing climate of uncertainty, which is discouraging companies from investing in new trailers. Although the immediate impact of the tariffs is now seen as less severe, the blow to business confidence has delayed the start of the recovery, which is now postponed to the second half of 2025. Geographically, growth is expected in nearly all Western European countries, with the possible exceptions of Austria and Switzerland. In Germany, registrations during the first half of the year were particularly weak, though a rebound is anticipated in the latter part of 2025.
Following the strong post-pandemic recovery in production between 2021 and 2022, the trailer sector suffered a new setback over the subsequent two years. Registrations in 2024 dropped by more than 10 per cent compared to 2023. This was compounded by a collapse in exports to Russia and Belarus — historically important markets for Western European manufacturers. Despite current difficulties, the Clear International report outlines a positive trajectory for the years ahead. Trailer sales are expected to return to 2022 levels by 2027, with a peak forecast for 2027–2028, comparable to those reached in 2008 and 2018.
