As anticipated, average spot rates in the container shipping market are continuing to fall across almost all major trade lanes. The latest weekly update from Drewry, published on 24 July, confirms the downward trend. According to analysts, the market's reaction to the recent tariffs was delayed by about a month, with rates beginning to rise in May and peaking in the first week of June. However, this upward trend soon reversed, with rates steadily falling since mid-June, suggesting that the initial impact of the tariffs on the market was not sustained.
The global index, which averages rates across all routes, has fallen by three percent to 2,517 dollars per forty-foot equivalent unit. Yet a closer look at individual routes reveals more nuanced dynamics. On Asia–Europe corridors, the drop is relatively contained: rates from Shanghai to Genoa fell by two percent to 3,376 dollars per feu, while the Shanghai–Rotterdam route slipped by just one percent, settling at 3,286 dollars. In the opposite direction, rates remain unchanged at 495 dollars per feu.
The decline is more pronounced on routes between China and the United States. Shipments from Shanghai to New York fell by seven percent, bringing the rate down to 4,210 dollars per feu. From Shanghai to Los Angeles, the decrease was five percent, to 2,675 dollars. Rates heading back to Asia are also down, though only slightly: sending a 40-foot container from Los Angeles to Shanghai now costs an average of 715 dollars.
Drewry notes that shipping lines are responding to the temporary suspension of US tariffs on Chinese goods, which is due to end in mid-August, by cutting back transpacific services and cancelling additional sailings. With the rush to ship goods ahead of tariff hikes now over, analysts expect spot rates on this trade lane to continue falling next week.
Not all routes are following the same pattern, however. Transatlantic services are bucking the trend. The average spot rate for a container from Rotterdam to New York rose by two percent over the past week to 2,003 dollars, while the reverse route dropped by just a single dollar to 875 dollars per feu. Overall, Drewry’s Container Forecaster predicts that the balance between supply and demand will weaken again in the second half of 2025, driving further spot rate reductions. The volatility and timing of rate fluctuations will largely depend on future tariff decisions by the Trump administration and potential capacity shifts linked to US sanctions on Chinese vessels, the outcome of which remains uncertain.
