In the second quarter of 2025, the European road freight sector continues to mirror the broader uncertainties of the continental economy, caught between tentative signs of recovery and enduring structural difficulties. The report “The European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Q2 2025”, published in August, provides a clear picture: spot and contract rates have converged, both standing at 132.2 points, though for opposite reasons. While spot rates have fallen—reaching their lowest levels since 2023—contract rates have seen a slight increase. The dominant factor remains demand, which continues to drive the market more than costs, which are showing mixed signals.
Diesel prices fell by 6.4% compared to the previous quarter, a figure that might suggest some easing of pressure on profit margins. However, this decrease was tempered by renewed geopolitical tensions that pushed fuel prices higher again towards the end of June. Adding to the complexity, wages in the sector rose by 4.5% year-on-year, and many European countries introduced or raised motorway tolls, in some cases incorporating a CO2 emissions component. As a result, companies are still contending with high and partly unpredictable operating costs.
From a volume perspective, the data shows a gradual improvement compared to the lows recorded at the end of 2024. Trade between major European economies such as Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland is on the rise, although levels remain below those of the previous year. Industrial production has shown an erratic pattern, with a decline in April followed by a rebound in May. Forecasts for the rest of the year lean towards optimism: lower inflation and a recovery in purchasing power are expected to support domestic demand and push transport volumes closer to 2022 levels.
On the supply side, however, the challenges remain severe. The driver shortage has reached record levels, with over 426,000 vacancies across Europe. The problem is not only quantitative but also demographic: 36% of drivers are over 55, while only 4% are under 25. To counter this trend, European institutions have decided to lower the minimum age for professional driving to 18, with the possibility of starting training at 17. Meanwhile, the market is seeing a 15.4% drop in new truck registrations compared to the same period in 2024, a sign of cautious investment behaviour among operators.
Another notable aspect of the report concerns the evolution of rates on key international routes. The Duisburg–Lille corridor saw a sharp drop in spot rates, hit by weak German industrial exports and lower fuel prices. In contrast, contract rates rose on the Lyon–Birmingham route thanks to the recovery in UK imports, though spot rates collapsed in line with a slowdown in British consumer spending. On the Milan–Warsaw route, contract rates dipped slightly, reflecting weak industrial demand in Poland. Export rates to major northern European ports such as Rotterdam and Antwerp are rising sharply, driven by an increase in EU shipments, while import spot rates are falling significantly due to stagnant domestic demand.
National routes also reveal considerable variation between European countries. Spain is experiencing sustained rate growth, fuelled by strong domestic demand and solid industrial performance. Italy follows a similar path, with rates rising both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, supported by investments in sectors such as engineering and construction. The situation is markedly different in Germany, where spot rates are declining sharply, while contract rates remain stable thanks to a slight rebound in production and consumption. In France, weak demand and a slowdown in manufacturing have driven both rate components down, despite controlled costs.
The operator confidence index stood at 8.2 points, a slight decrease from the previous quarter. The majority of respondents expect a modest increase in rates, while a significant share foresee no substantial changes. This reflects a perception of greater stability, but also the absence of clear signs of recovery. The weak confidence of businesses and consumers continues to influence market dynamics, making short-term forecasts particularly difficult.
Overall, the second quarter of 2025 reveals a market in fragile balance, where falling energy costs are offset by new charges and where demand recovery remains uncertain. Road freight companies are operating in a fragmented and unpredictable environment, where adaptability, careful cost management, and a sound understanding of macroeconomic trends will be crucial to tackling the challenges of the second half of the year.
