The air cargo market experienced renewed momentum in July 2025, following the uncertain picture of June. Global demand, measured in tonne-kilometres, rose by 5.5% year on year, a sharp improvement compared with the modest 0.6% gain recorded in the previous month. Available capacity increased by 3.9%, while the average load factor reached 45.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from July 2024. International traffic alone also showed strong dynamics, with volumes up 6%, capacity up 4.5% and a load factor at 50.4%. This performance was largely driven by companies bringing shipments forward ahead of the introduction of new US customs tariffs, turning to air transport to ensure speed and reliability. E-commerce provided an additional boost, particularly along the Asia–Europe corridor.
From a geographical perspective, Asia Pacific once again acted as the industry’s engine. Carriers in the region posted an 11.1% annual increase in traffic, with an international load factor at 56.0%, well above the global average. The most dynamic routes were Asia–Europe, up 13.5% year on year, and Asia–Middle East, up 8.5%. Intra-Asian traffic also performed strongly, rising by 10.3%. Africa consolidated the positive trend already visible in previous months, with volumes increasing by 9.4% and a load factor of 46.8%, more than four percentage points higher than in July 2024 and the strongest level ever recorded for this month. The Africa–Asia route stood out with a 12.1% rise, reflecting the deepening trade integration between the two continents.
Europe posted more moderate growth of 4.1%, but achieved the highest load factor among the main regions at 49.5%, underlining efficient capacity management. European carriers benefited from buoyant flows with Asia, up 13.5%, and North America, up 9.6%, while connections with the Middle East remained broadly stable at 0.3%. June’s data were revised down from an initial 0.8% increase to a 0.7% decline, confirming that the recovery for European carriers only materialised in July.
North America halted its contraction phase, ending July with a modest 0.7% rise, but remains constrained by weakness on transpacific lanes. The Asia–North America route fell by 1% year on year, marking a third consecutive decline, directly linked to Washington’s tariff policies. The Middle East, after the airspace disruptions of June, staged a limited recovery with volumes up 2.6%. However, capacity growth weighed on performance, pushing the load factor down to 44.6%, 1.4 points lower than a year earlier. Latin America and the Caribbean again proved the weakest region, with volumes up just 2.4% and a load factor stuck at 33.6%, among the lowest worldwide and 0.4 points below last year.
Capacity dynamics deserve closer attention. In July the increase was driven mainly by bellyhold space on passenger flights, up 7.3% year on year and 5.2% compared with June, reaching the highest level since 2019 thanks to the summer season. Dedicated freighters made only a marginal contribution, at 1% growth. The overall capacity mix remained stable, with 56% coming from passenger bellyhold and 44% from freighters. This rebalancing has helped contain freight rates but risks compressing margins on highly competitive routes with little service differentiation.
On the cost and revenue side, the average Brent crude price in July stood at around 71 dollars per barrel, 16.8% lower than in 2024. Jet fuel averaged 92.4 dollars, down 9.1% year on year but up 4.3% compared with June. The spread between crude and jet fuel, at 21.4 dollars, was 31.3% wider than a year earlier. Cargo yields fell by 2% year on year, but gained 0.8% month on month, supported by the July peak in volumes.
The wider macroeconomic picture, however, shows potential storm clouds. In June, world trade in goods rose 3.1% year on year but slipped 0.3% month on month. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 51.3 to 49.66, dipping below the critical 50 threshold, while new export orders stood at 48.2, suggesting a possible cooling of industrial demand after July’s surge. July therefore restored some confidence to the sector, but uncertainty remains high. The frontloading effect linked to US tariffs may fade quickly, raising the risk of a slowdown as early as late summer. Trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union, which envisage 15% duties on most European exports, represent another risk factor.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the management of sensitive airspace could affect operational regularity. Against this backdrop, European and Asian carriers ended July with positive results and competitive load factors, while North America, the Middle East and Latin America remain the weaker links in the global chain. The coming months will show whether July’s growth was a temporary spike or the start of a more structural recovery.
