Air freight has entered 2025 with slower-than-anticipated growth. According to Xeneta's data, global demand in January rose by just two percent year-on-year, a figure that contrasts sharply with the double-digit increases seen throughout much of 2024. Industry operators are closely monitoring the evolution of global trade tensions as the market appears to be entering a wait-and-see phase.
Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, noted that this slowdown cannot be directly attributed to the new tariff measures introduced by the United States but rather to a combination of factors. Among them, the earlier timing of the Chinese New Year, which affected outbound volumes from China, and a particularly strong January 2024 serve as key contributors.
This does not mean, however, that US tariffs are not weighing on corporate strategies. The initial moves by President Trump, including the threat of tariffs (suspended for a month) on Mexico and Canada, and the increase in tariffs on China, followed by retaliatory measures from Beijing, Ottawa, and Mexico City, have created an atmosphere of instability. Van de Wouw highlights that negotiations are still ongoing and that the nature of US decisions allows for room to manoeuvre. Nevertheless, uncertainty is negatively impacting investor confidence and complicating planning for freight forwarders and logistics operators.
In recent years, cross-border e-commerce has been a crucial driver of air freight growth. In 2024, 25% of China's global e-commerce sales were destined for the United States, filling more than half of the available cargo hold on routes between the two countries. However, the announced (and currently suspended) removal of the de minimis exemption for online purchases—meaning the imposition of tariffs on goods valued below $800—could alter the landscape. The introduction of new customs duties and rising costs could impact transport capacity and extend delivery times.
Van de Wouw believes that despite a potential price increase, demand for low-cost products with fast delivery will remain high. Leading industry players were aware of the potential reform and have already put strategies in place to adapt. According to Xeneta’s analyst, the immediate impact may be limited, but in the long run, consumer perception will be decisive: if delivery delays exceed a critical threshold, demand could decline, affecting volumes and transport rates globally.
If e-commerce were to slow down, general cargo shippers could stand to benefit, seeing a reallocation of available capacity and a subsequent reduction in transport rates. However, the general cargo market has not experienced significant growth in recent years, and there are no concrete signs of a trend reversal in 2025.
As mentioned, global air freight grew by just two percent year-on-year in January 2025, partly due to the gradual resolution of maritime transport disruptions following the ceasefire in Gaza. Overall capacity also increased by the same percentage, keeping the dynamic load factor stable at 57%.
Despite the slowdown in demand, global spot rates remained 17% higher than the previous year, standing at $2.65 per kilogram, still 56% above pre-pandemic levels. Factors supporting these rates include e-commerce, limited air capacity due to the slow production of new aircraft, the need to reroute flights due to Russian airspace restrictions, and the gradual adjustment of rates to supply and demand fluctuations. On a monthly basis, global spot rates declined by 11%, slightly less than the 13% drop recorded in the same period of 2024.
Trends across key trade routes reveal varying patterns. High-volume "fronthaul" routes continued to see increases, with the most significant growth on connections between the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe, where spot rates rose by 63% year-on-year to reach $2.59 per kilogram. The Europe-North America route also saw a 24% increase, with rates at $2.36 per kilogram.
The strategic allocation of cargo capacity on Asian routes contributed to a moderate rise in rates from the region's major northeastern hubs. Rates from China to Europe grew by 19% to $4.40 per kilogram, while those to North America increased by 14% to $4.38 per kilogram.
Conversely, lower-volume "backhaul" routes experienced a decline in rates, with drops of up to 22% on the North America-China route and 2% between North America and Europe. An exception was the Europe-Latin America connections, which recorded a single-digit year-on-year increase.
